Scenario Planning
The reality is that there are certainties we should expect regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, as well as uncertainties that depend on several factors – who wins the election, but also how much control of Congress each party wields.
Working through each of these scenarios can help business, brands and nonprofits anticipate the implications of the post-election environment we’ll be operating in, and proactively plan for strategies to navigate it successfully.
Here’s what we expect to see, no matter which scenario occurs.
- In any of these scenarios, we expect that Americans will be fed up with the other side’s rhetoric – but they will also be riled up from a contentious election season.
- Strong mandates – in either direction – will mean policy changes that are likely to impact your business and brands.
- The world will be closely watching what companies do and how consumers respond – so expect more risk and more scrutiny this year.
When Ipsos does scenario planning with clients, it’s important to understand that there are many different implications, and potential actions to get ahead of them.
While neither a Red Wave nor a Blue Wave is most likely to happen, it’s helpful to look at the fringes to make some educated guesses about what the implications would be along the spectrum of possibilities.
Potential outcomes for 2024
Navigate through the scenarios by clicking on read more in the grid below.
➜ High likelihood
Narrow Biden Win
(Democrats hold White House, Republicans hold House and take Senate)
White House besieged
- Legislative gridlock & focus on political battles / investigations of executives
- Potential for government shutdowns
- Relative freedom of maneuver for private sector within existing context
➜ High likelihood
Narrow Trump Win
(Democrats take House, Republicans take Senate & White House)
Governmental and social disorder
- Legislative gridlock & focus on political battles / investigations of executives
- Personality-driven global policy setting
- Ongoing political and social risk for private sector
➜ High likelihood
Narrow Biden Win
(Democrats hold White House, Republicans hold House and take Senate)
White House besieged
- Legislative gridlock & focus on political battles / investigations of executives
- Potential for government shutdowns
- Relative freedom of maneuver for private sector within existing context
➜ High likelihood
Narrow Trump Win
(Democrats take House, Republicans take Senate & White House)
Governmental and social disorder
- Legislative gridlock & focus on political battles / investigations of executives
- Personality-driven global policy setting
- Ongoing political and social risk for private sector
