Scenario Planning
Scenario 1: Blue Wave
Odds: Low likelihood
- Biden wins
- Democrats take the House of Representatives
- Democrats hold the Senate
Key Characteristics
- Emboldened progressive control of government
- Potential for major federal spending
- Proactive regulatory state
- Opportunities for “good” private sector actors to set agendas
In this scenario...
Expect more public disagreements, and potentially more violence, in a situation where one party is in control of both Congress and the White House and Trump fails to secure a return to the Presidential office.
Emboldened by the mandate, Democrats would begin enacting policy changes in 2025, which could affect the way businesses operate. However, the continuity of a second term for Biden means few reversals of policy from the last four years.
Scenario 1: Blue Wave
Expected Impact
- Citizens will benefit from increasing protections / investment for health care, which may help them feel secure
- A continued push to reduce carbon footprints may bring more support for things such as EV rebates & credits
- Expect regulatory action around the environment - restrictions on emissions, investment in clean energy
- Continued agenda to expand job opportunities, improve infrastructure - which may help consumer confidence
- Furthering tensions between border states and sanctuary cities due to immigration influx
Example Business Implications
- Are your emissions and ESG initiatives in line with the expected actions from a Democrat-controlled Congress and White House? If not, how can you bring them in line?
- How might economic growth and an increase in headcount align with your company’s diversity initiatives?
- Would your target consumers be in a positive or negative mood in this scenario, and how will that affect sales?