Red Wave
Scenario 4: Red Wave
Odds: Low likelihood
- Trump wins
- Republicans gain in the House of Representatives
- Republicans take the Senate
Key Characteristics
- MAGA ascendant
- Dismantling of much of regulatory state
- Significant social unrest
- Significant pressure on businesses to comply or “resist”
- U.S. retreats from global leadership
In this scenario...
Emboldened by a Trump return to office and a situation where one party is in control of both the Senate and the White House, conservatives will feel victorious while liberals may feel as though history is repeating itself.
Republicans will begin scaling back infrastructure projects and government oversight, in line with conservative ideology. The return of Trump for a second term potentially means many changes in policy from the last administration, both at home and abroad.
Scenario 4: Red Wave
Expected Impact
- Citizens may feel heightened concern for future stability due to potential cuts to social security and Medicare
- Increase in restraints on consumer healthcare rights and access
- High polarization trickles down from federal to the local level due to stricter immigration bans
- Less federal regulatory action such as environmental rules on emissions, and international accords
- Businesses may have lower taxes and greater benefits from less federal oversight
Example Business Implications
- Are your strategic priorities and product roadmaps aligned with the expected actions from a Republican-controlled Senate and White House? If not, how can you mitigate risks?
- What messaging might you need to prepare around a potential change in regulation, international relations and trade policy – internally and externally?