Narrow Trump Win
Scenario 3: Narrow Trump Win
Odds: High likelihood
- Trump wins
- Republicans take the Senate and White House
- Democrats take the House
Key Characteristics
- Governmental and social disorder
- Legislative gridlock & focus on political battles / investigations of executives
- Personality-driven global policy setting
- Ongoing political and social risk for private sector
In this scenario...
Social unrest may be prominent, with Republicans buoyed by Trump’s return to office and Democrats fearing a wave of social policy changes or redactions. Additionally, concerns over foreign relations and international trade may manifest for many Americans, while regulation of the border will remain an area of conflict between Congress and the White House.
In the commercial world, companies may have the benefit of reduced federal regulation paired with a comparably low tax rate. However, this financial benefit will be potentially balanced by consumers calling for brands to fill the role of proponents for social and environmental change.
Scenario 3: Narrow Trump Win
Expected Impact
- Citizens may feel strain from the results of a highly anticipated, polarized and emotional election
- The presence of a bipartisan government coupled with President Trump’s penchant for enacting executive orders during his first term stirs up uncertainty among the private sector/financial markets
- Diplomatic relationships, funding, and trade deals with United States foreign allies shift due to Trump retaking office
- Diminished progress on regulations championed by Biden
Example Business Implications
- Would changes in foreign relations or policies heavily impact your business through supply chains, product distribution, or global brand messaging?
- How can your business balance the potential benefits of less federal oversight and lower taxes while accepting or maintaining a role as a thought leader or advocate for social causes consumers care about?