OH BOOMER
Where art thou?
THE CONSUMER EXTINCTION
Is your brand ready for a world with fewer buyers?
THE CONSUMER EXTINCTION
Is your brand ready for a world without buyers?
THE CONSUMER EXTINCTION
Is your brand ready for a world without buyers
Global population decline is a mathematical certainty
Global fertility rates have collapsed since the mid-1960s. Because the number of people being born is in rapid decline, population decline is inevitable – the only variable is how long it will take in different parts of the world.
Births minus deaths - per country
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision, custom data acquired via website.
Three key factors have led to declining global fertility:
Urbanisation:
Moving from rural farms (where kids are free labour) to cities turns children into a major financial expense.
Spotlight: See how urbanisation has transformed Mexico in one century.
Changing lives of women:
Urbanisation provides women with access to education and career opportunities outside the family unit. This shift leads women to delay – and ultimately reduce – their fertility, having fewer children (or none at all).
Cultural shift:
People have individually decided to prioritise 'living their best lives' now rather than fulfilling a perceived responsibility to create the next generation.
The global economy is losing its main engine: consumers
Post-WWII economic growth was largely driven by the human population quadrupling. The consequences of our upcoming demographic transformation isn't about our ability to produce goods, but rather a lack of people to consume them. If you ride the population escalator up for growth, you will eventually have to ride it down.
Robots don't buy lunch
While AI and automation will drastically reduce the cost of production, they cannot solve the problem of consumption. An economy driven by consumer goods cannot grow if the number of consumers is shrinking – and robots don't buy baby prams, furniture, or cars.
The population pyramid is inverting
Many countries are seeing their population pyramids flip, with a shrinking base of young people and a growing top of older, dependent individuals. This leads to generational tension, as fewer workers must support a larger elderly population.
of the world population will be over 60 by 2050, up from 12% in 2015.1
World population: preparing for a fall
Source: United Nations, DESA, Population division. World Population Prospects 2022. http://population.un.org/wpp/ *0.5 over or under current replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children. +0.5 references if the rate is 2.6 children, while -0.5 if the rate is 1.6 children
Businesses must navigate the 'dormant' vs. 'endurance' economies
The population is splitting into two distinct groups:
A dormant economy of affluent older people who already own what they need and consume less. They need to be 'woken up' and re-engaged by marketers who currently ignore them (e.g., affluent women over 65).
An endurance economy of younger generations who face financial precarity who cannot afford to participate in the traditional consumer market and attain milestones like homeownership. Brands need to help this group cope with their reality.
There are massive opportunities for those who adapt early
Businesses and marketers who stop relying on natural population growth, drop their outdated youth-focused marketing models, and actively innovate for this older, changing society will be the ones who win and build massive wealth on the 'escalator down'.
of people globally live in a country whose population has already peaked.2
Thought starters
Do declining populations mean you need to tilt your strategy towards building loyalty and/or maximising share of wallet?
Does your current tone of voice resonate with people’s real lives in today’s endurance economy?
Does your brand have potential to unlock spending in the dormant economy?
Footnotes
1. World Health Organization (2025). Ageing and health. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health
2. United Nations (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. https://population.un.org/wpp/
