Amidst the nervousness of the headlines, economic turmoil and media crime that rightly capture the attention of most Brazilians, unseen shifts are taking place at deeper levels, often imperceptible but with the potential to transform in the long term. Just as tectonic plates slowly shape the surface of the planet, these quiet changes are fundamentally reshaping Brazil's social, economic and cultural landscape.

The most relevant concerns for Brazilians continue to be related to basic human needs: crime/violence and healthcare remain the most cited concerns in Ipsos’ What Worries the World study. Brazilians are also particularly concerned about climate change and environmental threats, jaded by a disturbingly increasing number of recent extreme events affecting several regions. Getting through the day is still a worryingly pragmatic task for most citizens.

The inexorable demographic changes, for which Brazil is a poster child, are bringing about profound changes that have just been announced: divorces are on the increase, single-person households have risen to almost 20%, while those headed by women now account for half of all households, and the number of households with same-sex parents has increased by 550% in 12 years. The traditional family of parents and children living together is now officially a minority in the country (45% of all households).

Some global trends are particularly representative of the way most Brazilians think today:

• While 93% use social media (vs. 82% globally), 68% believe that technology will destroy our lives (vs. 57% globally) - which, when you think about it, is not as paradoxical as it seems.
• Lack of perspective and purpose (62% of Brazilians believe they should focus on the present because the future is unpredictable, vs. 46% 10 years ago), which leads to one in four young people (aged 18-24) not studying or working.
• Brands emerge as a potential source of trust, as Brazilians strongly support brands that align with their own values (78%, up +27pp in 10 years).

For a company or a brand to ignore these fundamental social movements could be like building a house on a fault line...

The past year in France has been marked by three things: on the political front, the rise of populism; on the economic front, inflation and austerity measures that have affected consumer behaviour and challenged the government; and on the marketing front, new expectations of advertising and brands. We can see the impacts of these developments across many areas:

Change in consumer behaviour

Due to inflation since 2022, consumers have cut back on essential spending, favouring hard discount distributors such as Shein and Temu, and alternatives such as second-hand goods. In a context of rising taxes and constraints, the French are not expected to return to previous habits, a shift that challenges traditional and mid-range brands.

Ecology vs. economy

Given the pressure on public finances, the energy transition risks being the big loser in the 'ecology vs. economy' debate. Pension funding, social protection, the army, etc., are seen as priorities. And without investment in renewable energy, France will not be able to decarbonise its economy or meet European targets for 2030, while remaining dependent on fossil fuel imports.

Antidotes to gloom

The winners of the 2024 Cannes Lions show that the more difficult the context becomes, the more brands need to position themselves as antidotes to gloom. The winning ads resonate with the nouveau nihilism, with more French people adopting a 'YOLO' (You Only Live Once) vision of consumption, because "the important thing is to enjoy life today, tomorrow is another day", an idea shared by 68% in 2024, up 10 points compared to 2013 (Ipsos Global Trends).

Sharing experiences – an opportunity for brands

Despite the gloom, people crave experiences, togetherness and special moments. The Paris Olympic Games responded to this with a real before-and-after effect: while the French were ranked 28th out of 33 countries in terms of interest a few weeks before the Games, afterwards 65% had a positive opinion of the Games and 66% thought that they had a positive impact on France's image in the world. This should encourage brands to sponsor more major events (concerts, competitions, e-sports etc.), both to be associated with exceptional moments and to connect with new generations.

2024 has been a year of contrasts for the UK, marked by positive milestones and significant challenges. We achieved a major environmental goal, ending coal use for electricity generation after 142 years. However, public dissatisfaction with the National Health Service reached its highest recorded level in four decades. Wider discontent with the state of the nation culminated in widespread rioting in August, fed by online disinformation about asylum seekers and the struggle to manage illegal immigration across the English Channel.

Despite these difficulties, the UK ranks 10th out of 30 countries in the Ipsos Happiness Index; three-quarters of Britons reporting being happy. This paradox may be explained by our powerful interest in nostalgia, exemplified by overwhelming public interest in tickets for the reunion of Oasis, a 'Britpop' band from the 1990s and 2000s. Nostalgia can also be seen in our politics through the Labour Party's landslide election victory, their first since 2005. This win, however, rests on the fragile foundations of just 33.7% of votes cast, highlighting our significant electoral volatility and the current government’s surprisingly thin mandate.

Labour's post-election 'honeymoon' period was very short-lived, with public concern rising even before a budget that increased taxes and borrowing. The increasing importance of immigration, evidenced by public disorder and the rise of the right-wing Reform UK party, presents a significant emerging challenge for the new administration.

The government’s ability to demonstrate quick improvements in public services and economic growth will be crucial for maintaining public support and helping the UK public to balance its tendency towards nostalgia with belief in a better future. Despite a national tendency towards pessimism, the UK has a strong international brand, ranking fourth in the Anholt-Ipsos Nation Brands Index. The country's cultural influence, particularly its history, heritage, and the Royal Family, remains a significant asset. This perception is very useful for UK businesses that export to the world, with 52% saying that Britain’s brand helps them to grow and increase sales.

Looking ahead to 2025, businesses and the government must deliver on the promise of change, demonstrating responsiveness to public concerns. While economic perceptions remain pessimistic, there are signs of a potential shift towards greater optimism. Increased trust in various societal figures, from professors to the 'ordinary person', suggests a possible change in mindset. 2025 will reveal whether the events of 2024 serve as stepping stones towards a more positive future for the UK.