The State of the 2020s

The uneasy decade

The 2020s are not an interlude. They are a reckoning. The world is breaking apart in ways we have not seen since the Great Depression and the war that followed it.

Globalisation, once the creed of progress, is in retreat.

Tariffs rise. Trade slows. Borders harden. Citizens may still say they like a connected world. But they vote for parties that promise to close it down.

Inequality has become the organising principle of politics.

Wealth concentrates at the very top. The middle collapses. Immigration has become the lightning rod for this anger. Most citizens believe their countries are full. That belief, more than any statistic, now drives elections.

The climate crisis is no longer about the future. It is the present.

Heat waves kill thousands. Seas swallow islands. Storms level whole regions. People accept that disaster is coming. They no longer believe they can prevent it. Fatalism spreads as action stalls.

Technology deepens the unease.

Artificial Intelligence promises abundance and cures. It also threatens jobs, privacy, and autonomy. People cannot imagine life without it. They also believe it is destroying their lives. Both things are true.

And beneath all of this runs a darker current. The collapse of optimism.

Citizens no longer believe their governments will help them. They no longer plan for the future because they no longer believe in the future. They live for today because tomorrow feels worse.

This is the uneasy decade. Not one crisis but many. Climate. Demography. Inequality. Mistrust. Technology. Together they form a storm that will test every system we thought secure. History will not remember the 2020s as an age of stability. It will remember whether leaders surrendered to decline or found the courage to reinvent.

So how should leaders navigate this world? Whether you are a CEO, a government minister, or the head of a major NGO, here are five rules for survival in 2026.

Rule One: Stop assuming growth.

The pie will not keep getting bigger. Populations are shrinking. Trade is fracturing. Resources are tightening. The winners will be those who can make a virtue of limits. Leaders who promise more of everything will fail. Leaders who deliver enough, fairly and reliably, will endure.

Rule Two: Immigration is the hinge of politics.

Most citizens believe their countries are already full. It does not matter if it is true. Leaders who ignore that anger will be punished. Leaders who can reconcile the need for newcomers with the demand for order will dominate the politics of the next decade.

Rule Three: The middle class is no longer the ballast.

It is the fuse. For generations, the middle stabilised democracy. Now it feels betrayed. Housing is out of reach. Wages are stagnant. Opportunity has narrowed. When the middle class believes the future has been stolen, it revolts. Leaders who restore dignity and stability to the middle will hold their societies together. Those who ignore it will preside over fracture.

Rule Four: Technology will not wait.

Artificial Intelligence is not a neutral tool. It is a tidal force that will reorder economies, politics, and power. Leaders who hesitate will be overwhelmed. Leaders who harness AI with purpose, and show their citizens how it serves human progress, will own the future.

Rule Five: The future is no longer guaranteed.

For two centuries we assumed our children would live better than we do. That assumption is dead. Citizens now live for today because they do not believe in tomorrow. Leaders who cannot restore faith in progress will preside over nations that retreat into nostalgia, resentment, and tribalism. The leaders who succeed will be the ones who can make the future feel once again like a promise instead of a threat.

These are not trends to admire. They are the rules of survival. The world has changed. The leaders who adapt will emerge stronger. Those who cling to the old order will be remembered as the last custodians of decline.