SCOTLAND
Place, Inequality and Public Services: The view from Scotland
Public services and places across the UK face different challenges, but we also identify commonalities. Both devolved and UK governments must get delivery right and show tangible improvements.
Perception of public services
62%
of those who think public services have got worse in their local area blame the Scottish Government.
Almost 14 years on from the landmark Christie Commission on the Future Delivery of Public Services, Scotland’s public services face “the most challenging context for public service delivery in living memory”. Rising demand for public services coupled with constrained public spending means the need for the radical, urgent and sustained public service reform recommended by Christie is more acute than ever.
Our research, underpinned by eight MRP models, provides a unique comparative picture of how perceptions of public services compare across the nations of the UK. Our results highlight stark geographical inequalities both across the UK and within its constituent nations. These perceptions risk further exacerbating feelings of unfairness, with those in the devolved nations and the North of England particularly likely to believe the UK Government spends less on their local area than on it does on other local areas. Taken together, the findings point to the importance of delivering tangible improvements, especially on entrenched issues like regional and local inequalities, if people’s perceptions of public services are not to worsen further.
Our results highlight stark geographical inequalities both across the UK and within its constituent nations
Perceptions of Scotland's public services
Across the UK, people are gloomy about the state of public services both nationally and in their local area – with those in Scotland and Wales the most pessimistic. Almost three in four Scots (74%) think that public services in their local area have got worse in the last five years. Those in Wales are similarly negative, with 72% saying that public services in their local area have got worse, compared with 66% in Northern Ireland and 62% in England.
In a devolved context, who the public hold responsible for the perceived decline in public services is perhaps more complex. While the Scottish Government sets policies for the NHS and schools in Scotland, the overall budget envelope for running those services is largely determined by the UK Government – a point often referenced by the Scottish National Party when under fire for performance in these areas. This is reflected in our data.
Devolved government is most blamed for the perceived deterioration of local public services in Scotland, with 62% of Scots who think public services have got worse in their local area saying the Scottish Government is mainly responsible for this. However, over half blame the previous Conservative UK government – and those in Scotland are more likely to blame the previous Conservative UK government than those elsewhere in the UK are. Local councils do not escape blame either, with over half of Scots attributing the downward trend in public services to councils.
Comparing Scots’ perceptions of core public services such as health, education, public transport and policing with perceptions in England, Wales and Northern Ireland shines new light on geographical inequalities across the UK.
Health services
Half of Scots (51%) say they are dissatisfied with the quality of health services provided by local GPs and NHS hospitals – an identical proportion to England. While overall satisfaction with health service quality in Scotland is similar to the UK average, our results point to considerable geographical inequalities within Scotland, with a range from local authorities with higher levels of satisfaction - such as Orkney, the Western Isles and Shetland - to more dissatisfaction across the central belt. Understanding what drives the views of different local areas should be a key concern for those leading health service reform in Scotland.
Education
Scots are split in their views of the quality of state primary and secondary education, with 30% saying they are satisfied with this, 28% that they are dissatisfied and 27% that they are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied. Setting this in comparative perspective across the nations, those in Scotland are more likely to say that they are dissatisfied with the quality of education than those in England or Northern Ireland are. This may in part reflect performance issues. International PISA results, last published by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2023, found a long-term decline in performance in reading, maths and science in Scotland’s secondary schools. And while Scotland’s reading score was ahead of Northern Ireland, it lagged behind Northern Ireland in maths and science, and behind England in all three areas of assessment.
Public transport
Turning to public transport, Scots are more likely to be dissatisfied than satisfied with public transport in their local area. With 17% of its population living in rural areas, Scotland’s geography presents particular challenges when it comes to public transport, with rural residents more likely to drive to work and to schools, and less likely to live within a 15-minute drive of key services. Dissatisfaction with public transport is especially high in the Highlands and Islands and Aberdeenshire, which may reflect a decline in the overall availability of public transport services across rural Scotland. Public transport can only be part of the solution in more sparsely populated rural areas, and future transport planning in these areas will need to focus additionally on finding a good balance of demand-responsive transport, active travel infrastructure, ride sharing and car clubs, and electric vehicle charging points.
Crime and policing
Looking at crime and policing, the most recently published Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) results from 2021/2022 show that both the overall level of crime and the likelihood of being a victim of crime in Scotland fell over the previous 15 years. However, the SCJS also points to a fall in confidence in the police across a range of measures. These perceptions of the police in Scotland are reflected in our data, with half of Scots (51%) saying they are dissatisfied with the quality of policing to reduce crime and anti-social behaviour in their local area. This underlines the power of perceptions on this issue; although crime rates are higher in England than in Scotland, Scots are no more likely to be satisfied with the quality of policing to reduce crime and anti-social behaviour locally than their English counterparts are.
Jobs
In other areas of provision, our data also reveals differences between Scots’ views and the views of those elsewhere in the UK. When it comes to the availability of jobs, dissatisfaction is higher in the devolved nations (particularly in Wales) than it is in England.
Housing
Housing is also a particular issue for Scots, with over six in ten saying they are dissatisfied with the amount of housing which is affordable to buy or rent in their local area. The Scottish Government formally declared a national Housing Emergency in May 2024, while 12 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities have declared local housing emergencies. No local part of the country escapes this widespread dissatisfaction, but it is particularly acutely felt in the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow, and in the Highlands and Islands region. Factors such as undersupply of homes, regulatory and leadership challenges in delivering new homes, affordability challenges - including specific challenges experienced by private renters (with Scotland’s Census data showing a 9.5% increase in private lets between 2011 and 2022) - and different dynamics in local housing markets will all be contributing to these pressures.
Social cohesion and quality of life
One bright spot is social cohesion. Scots are the most likely of any of the UK nations to say that they are satisfied with the way people from different backgrounds get on together in their local area – 47% are satisfied with this, compared with 44% in England, 42% in Wales and 35% in Northern Ireland. Cohesion is particularly high in the Highlands and Islands, the South of Scotland, Stirling, Perth and Kinross and some parts of North East Scotland. This is important, since community cohesion is essential for a good quality of life, helping to mitigate socio-economic challenges and build community resilience.
Conclusion: public services at the ballot box
These findings underline that both devolved and Westminster governments cannot afford not to focus on public services, not least because services matter to voters. Polling conducted ahead of both Westminster and Holyrood elections makes this clear. Prior to the 2024 UK General Election, the NHS was the number one issue that Scots saw as very important in helping them decide which party to vote for. And in the run-up to the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2021, education and the NHS were the second and third-ranked issues that Scots expected would shape their vote, behind only Scottish independence/devolution. With the constitutional question having slipped lower down the Scottish public’s agenda in recent years, public services may well be an even more prominent concern for voters at the May 2026 Holyrood elections than they were in 2021.
A look at the public’s expectations for the future trajectory of public services suggests that voters recognise the scale of the challenges ahead. Hopes for improvements in the short term are not high, with just one in five of the Scottish public (21%) saying it is likely that public services will improve within the next two to three years – although there is slightly more optimism (37%) that services will improve within the next 10 years.
The old adage that all politics is local is one that First Minister John Swinney and his party would do well to heed ahead of next year’s Holyrood elections. At present the public are much more likely to view the Scottish Government’s record on key services such as the NHS and education critically than they are to view it favourably. Whether the Scottish Government is able to demonstrate tangible progress on the services that matter to voters in Scotland before next May may well make a difference to the Scottish National Party’s fortunes at the ballot box.
Emily Gray Managing Director, Ipsos
