HOUSING
Priced Out, Priced In
All housing (and politics) is local, meaning policy and engagement with people must be too.
Ipsos MRP Model
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Key findings
Dissatisfaction with the availability of affordable housing is widespread across the country, but hotspots reveal the need for tailored local solutions.
of Britons are dissatisfied with local housing affordability.
of the top local authorities with the highest levels of dissatisfaction were in London while 9 of the 10 with the highest satisfaction were in the North East.
0
The number of UK local authority areas in which satisfaction exceeds dissatisfaction.
Median house price to median gross annual earnings
Tony Blair's first day in office
3.5x
Keir Starmer's first day in office
8.5x
*Median house price to median gross annual workplace earnings ratio
The cost-of-housing crisis isn’t new, but it is more acutely felt than in the past. When Prime Minister Tony Blair walked through the door of his new home in Downing Street in 1997, the ratio of median house prices to the median income in England was 3.5. By the time Sir Keir Starmer did the same, the gap had widened to 8.5.
Seven in ten Britons think there is a housing crisis. The precarious nature of affording to buy or rent housing is a lived experience for millions of Britons and high costs are a cause of poverty for more than a million children. Among 38 OECD countries, only Finland spends more on its housing than Britain; private renters spend £1 in every £3 on their housing compared to £1 in every £10 in 19801.
We asked 20,000 adults across the UK whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the amount of housing in their local area which is affordable to buy or rent. Six in ten (59%) were either very or fairly dissatisfied, five times the proportion satisfied (12%).
Where are the hotspots?
Our new MRP model and the local granularity it affords, serves as a potentially useful new lens to understand, and address, the housing crisis.
Overall, 6 in 10 (59%) Britons are either very or fairly dissatisfied with the amount of housing in their local area which is affordable to buy or rent, five times the proportion satisfied (12%).
Our model shows no local part of the country escapes this widespread dissatisfaction. However, predictably it highlights several hotspots around major cities and university centres – places like Oxford, Cambridge, St. Albans, Brighton, Manchester, Bristol, Glasgow, Edinburgh and, of course, London which contains nine of the ten local authorities with the highest levels of dissatisfaction.
While there’s a strong correlation with population density, negative sentiment about local affordability is not confined to urban areas. Dissatisfaction in the South West, including rural areas in Cornwall and Devon as well as cities like Bristol, Plymouth and Exeter, is only slightly lower than in London (this echoes previous Ipsos polls highlighting the strong sense of a local housing crisis in the South West). Similarly, in Scotland, dissatisfaction in the Highland and Island regions is almost as acute as in the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Conversely, nine of the ten local authorities with the lowest levels of dissatisfaction are in the North East of England.
While there’s a strong correlation with population density, negative sentiment about local affordability is not confined to urban areas.
What is driving dissatisfaction?
Affordability, measured as the ratio between median house prices and earnings (no equivalent measure is available for private rents), is clearly important but other factors are at play. In the North East where house prices are on average 5 times earnings compared with 12 times in London, dissatisfaction still significantly outweighs satisfaction, even in places like Redcar, Cleveland and County Durham where the ratio is at its narrowest.
Across the UK, dissatisfaction is also associated with the incidence of private renting (and inversely with owner-occupiers). This reflects the specific affordability challenges experienced by private renters who face an average rate of inflation of 8% and the frustration of observing rising house prices pushing homeownership further out of reach (polls show most Britons would rather be owner-occupiers than renters). Even in inner London where three in ten households live in social housing – the tenure most associated with affordability – dissatisfaction remains acute. This potentially reflects frustrations about availability of social housing and the widespread public support for extending access to it.
Different dynamics in local housing markets are likely to complicate the picture. In Wales, house price rises have been comparatively muted – July saw the first rises after five consecutive quarters of falls – but private rental prices have reached record high levels. This has prompted calls to introduce rent controls akin to those introduced in Scotland in September 2022 (although it looks likely that controls there will be amended due to concerns about the viability of landlords continuing to let properties). Wales is already increasing Council Tax on second homes to address affordability. In the South West of England, an 83% increase in median earnings over the past 25 years has been dwarfed by an eye-watering 400% rise in house prices, exacerbating affordability concerns and anxieties about second homes and holiday lets. This has prompted Cornwall Council to charge an additional 100% council tax premium on second homes from 1 April 2025 with many other local authorities planning to follow suit, while last year’s Budget included a 2% increase in stamp duty on second homes.
In the South West of England, an 83% increase in median earnings over the past 25 years has been dwarfed by an eye-watering 400% rise in house prices.
What does this mean for government?
A year before taking office, Sir Keir Starmer sided with ‘builders’ over ‘blockers' and has followed this up in office by putting housebuilding front and centre of the mission to kick-start growth. October’s Budget included an additional £500m for the Affordable Homes Programme and delivering 1.5 million new homes is one of six ‘milestones’.
The goal is to provide “the biggest boost to affordable and social housing for a generation”. While this appears tough to achieve, some economists think it will only have a moderate impact on house prices in the medium term anyway2 But this isn’t a reason not to try; in the public’s eyes, the lack of political effort is one of the main reasons why Britain hasn’t built enough homes, something they consider to be pivotal to solving the country’s housing problems.
Politicians, especially local ones, will need reassurance that housebuilding can be delivered in the face of local opposition and nimbyism. Ipsos research offers some comfort here, suggesting that public support for new housing increases when certain conditions are met including ensuring they are affordable for locals, involve high-quality design and meaningful community engagement.
Our research shows that achieving Labour’s house-building targets requires a strategy that is led and delivered locally as well as nationally. While public dissatisfaction with housing affordability is ubiquitous, there are specific hotspots reflecting different local factors with diversity in demand and supply conditions.
Although the public’s dissatisfaction with affordability ought to help those making the case for housebuilding – a case which needs to be made locally as well as nationally – if the thousands of new homes built in the years to come aren’t truly affordable, it will be harder to win over a sceptical public.
All housing (and politics) is local, meaning policy and engagement with people must be too.
Achieving Labour’s housing targets requires a strategy that is both national and local. The housing crisis is country-wide, but there are clear hotspots where they should focus efforts, with interventions tailored to the local level – what is important in London will be different to conditions in the South West.
Ben Marshall Research Director, Ipsos
1 Bell, T. (2024). Great Britain?, 'The Housing Headwind', in T. Bell Great Britain?, Random House.
2 It would involve a 27% increase in additions to housing supply compared with the past five years.
