HEALTHCARE: OPPORTUNITY MEETS RISK
For pharmaceutical companies, GLP-1 drugs themselves represent a huge opportunity, as demand has outpaced supply in 2024.
Early evidence has shown them to be effective not only in weight loss and diabetes management, but also potentially cardiovascular disease, cancer and addiction.
Even if they end up being used primarily only for fighting obesity, a world with a lower-weight population would have substantial effects for the healthcare system, from providers down to drug stores. Lower obesity levels would likely also reduce hypertension, stroke, heart attacks and other conditions associated with overweight people. This could result in lower sales of medications.
Pharmacies might also face fewer impulse purchases at the front of the store as GLP-1 users pick up their prescriptions, requiring a further retooling of that retail model. Hospital systems may also see fewer patients with acute heart problems. And pharmaceutical companies that cannot take advantage of the obesity-drug wave may see a drop in revenue as uptake of other drugs lessens.
For insurers, the costs of covering obesity medications may be high in the short term as they first come to market. But longer term, reductions in obesity could drive down overall costs, as patients have fewer hospitalizations from related conditions.