Election Forecast
Even though the election outcome is unclear at this point, there are ways to make sense of that uncertainty. Ipsos examines many indicators to anticipate future events, using a multi-model approach to electoral uncertainty.
For elections, we use a combination of independent forecasting models to assess election outcomes:
- a poll-based model,
- a heuristics or rule-of-thumb model based on one specific indicator that gives insights into someone's advantage, and
- a fundamentals model based on approval ratings and incumbency.
These paint a picture of what might happen to tip the U.S. presidential election in either direction, given what is known now.
Potential trajectories for the next 8 months
Status Quo
(Where we are today)
Economic discontent remains despite improving macro economic climate
Biden approval at or below 40% Polls competitive Economy main issue
Forecast: Trump
Trends Continue
Public opinion catches up with improving economy
Biden approval at 45% Biden leads most polls Democracy main issue
Forecast: Biden
Black Swan
Unforeseen event (recession, pandemic, major attack, death) radically changes context
TBD
TBD
The first potential path the election could take is the “status quo” trajectory, which currently leans in Trump’s favor. For this trajectory, pay attention to the main issue and presidential approval ratings. If economic discontent remains important and continues to play a role in depressing President Biden’s approval ratings, then the presidential election leans in Trump’s favor.
The second trajectory looks better for Biden. If public opinion responds positively to economic growth, Biden could see his approval numbers strengthen as the economy subsides as the main problem, potentially being replaced with a main issue more favorable to Biden, like “saving democracy.” In this scenario, where consumer sentiment improves, a new main issue favorable to Biden takes hold, and the president’s approval numbers improve, the election leans in Biden’s favor.
Joe Biden's Job Approval
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (previously ‘president-elect’)
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Source: Reuters/Ipsos Core Political survey of 1,016 Americans, conducted April 12-14, 2024
All Americans
Joe Biden's Job Approval
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (previously ‘president-elect’)
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
2024
2024
Source: Reuters/Ipsos Core Political survey of 1,016 Americans, conducted April 12-14, 2024
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
say political extremism or threats to democracy
say economy, unemployment, and jobs
Source: Reuters/Ipsos Core Political survey of 1,016 Americans, conducted April 12-14, 2024
While these two trajectories provide a framework for making sense of some of the baked-in uncertainty about the election and historic drivers that shape outcomes, they don’t consider everything that can happen over the course of an election cycle.
A lot can happen between now and Election Day, and it is unclear how any of these unknown “wild card” events may advantage one campaign over the other. More importantly, in addition to these wild card events, we’re tracking three other factors that may impact U.S. elections.
Regardless of their electoral impact, these forces will shape businesses, no matter who wins the Oval Office:
1
The ideological gender divide
In many countries, there is a split by gender among Gen Z, with women becoming more aligned with progressive values.
2
Growing populism
In this flammable hyper-political, anti-establishment environment, the chances that businesses can be drawn into the political fray is much higher than during other moments when populism wasn’t as forceful. Trended Ipsos data shows that populism is widespread and prevalent in the U.S. and around the world, making it a structural issue businesses must pay attention to.
3
Economic discontent
Most don’t trust the system, viewing it as favoring the wealthy and powerful. Businesses are a part of this system and should keep the risks associated with that in mind.
Still, even accounting for the known unknowns, potential wild cards may still emerge: Unforeseen events such as a pandemic, recession, or major attack, can fundamentally change the dynamics and outcome of an election. Over the past 50 years, one in three presidential elections has been impacted by some unexpected or “wild card” event.
The pandemic during the 2020 presidential election is a good example of how the election and the main issue in an election year can shift based on these unexpected events. These events are fundamentally unknowable until they happen and are a constant component of election forecasting. Businesses must stay vigilant and continue to monitor the race to weigh risks and assess outcomes.
