Populism
Stasis in a year of change
This year, 2024, is arguably the largest political experiment in human history, with roughly four billion people going to the polls in 70-plus countries.
It is now clear that around the world establishment governments crumbled; the public expressed tremendous dissatisfaction with those in power.
While the peculiarities and drama of individual elections can create a lot of noise, it is critical to take a step back and notice the theme in the electoral results this year: populism. It is the connective thread throughout each discrete electoral event, and an organising force that will be with us for some time.
So, to start with, what is populism?
Populism is a political strategy, often harnessing anti-elite sentiment, employed by a political entrepreneur with some specific aim, usually electoral, in mind. Any successful political entrepreneur hoping to utilise this strategy depends on two pillars:
- Popular support for anti-establishment actions; and
- A structural opportunity, such as economic pressures or changing demography, that makes taking political risks palatable.
Taking a tour of elections around the world, it's clear that this political strategy is alive, well, and winning elections that cut across the political spectrum. President-elect Donald Trump, hailing from the right, won in the United States and exemplifies this trend. However, the Tories, the United Kingdom’s traditional party of the right, were kicked out too. Anti-establishment candidates won big, like Sheinbaum in Mexico, and Subianto in Indonesia. Long political reigns in South Africa and Japan came to an end. This year anti-establishment candidates seem to be winning the day, as the public rejects the status quo and those in power.
But this didn't all begin in January of 2024.
The foundations that created the opportunity structure for populism existed long before billions of people around the world hit the ballot box.
To start with, economic pressures have been pushing the world toward populism. Take for example, the inflation the world experienced coming out of the pandemic. This certainly generated acute economic pressures pushing us toward populism. However, these undercurrents existed before this period too. For the last decade and a half, the legacy of the Great Recession has also been exerting this populist pressure on the Western world.
Beyond economic pressures, other structural forces are shaping this moment and pushing us toward populism. Long-term social change and the reaction to it are also driving this populist conflict, which in turn shapes politics and populism around the world.
The world is changing
Globally, younger generations are more likely to identify with the LGBTQ+ community. They are more likely to support gay marriage, an issue that has grown more popular over the past decade. Younger generations around the world are also more likely to see themselves as feminists (even as some Gen Z men show signs of becoming more conservative).
Generational replacement is driving this change. What makes younger people different on these issues from their older counterparts?
One crucial factor fuelling this change is higher levels of education attainment. In the US and around the world, younger generations are more educated than older ones. However, education is not the sole driver of this change. Countries growing more diverse ethnically and racially, along with the expansion of information via social media and other technologies, also drive these differences too.
Critically, differences due to younger generations replacing older ones are more enduring than people just changing their opinions. In other words, these changes will be with us for the long term.
But, with every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. That is to say, there is a pointed political reaction to these social or demographic changes. Political parties absorb and respond to these reactions, which heightens political fault lines, polarising politics not just on what should be done (i.e., policy) but on who a nation or party represents (i.e., national identity).
Politics is always about differences
What sets this apart is that the crux of the growing divide today is more essential, driving directly at how countries and people see themselves.
A fundamental rift
Think of 'Make America Great Again' – Trump’s slogan that has been a centrepiece in American politics for nearly a decade. What does this call back to? It evokes an America that was white, Christian, native-born, and English-speaking. The America of Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats symbolises a different ideal – a more multi-cultural, diverse nation.
These feelings and movements are driven by a systemic distrust of established elites and are characterised by decisive majorities of the public believing that "the system is broken" or “the country needs a strong leader to take it back”. This is not just an American phenomenon, Brexit, Modi, Lopez Obrador, Le Pen and others are born of the same moment.
The conflict between 'what was' and 'what will be' is the central tension in our politics today, both in the US and in many other countries.
As the year of the greatest democratic experiment in history draws to a close, the question is: how do populists govern and enact policy in line with their goals? Or, how do populists influence governments and institutions, and play upon these fault lines if not in power?
Ultimately, this anti-establishment populist moment is not going anywhere anytime soon. Expect heighted uncertainty and conflict for the next generation. These demographic and social trends will take time to work within the body politic. In the meantime, get ready for tension and turbulence.
Further reading
